Insights
Post COVID-19 Scenario Planning lecture
The coronavirus pandemic continues to rage globally. Vaccination campaigns have injected some much needed optimism, but they’ve also prompted thoughts to turn to what happens next. This is especially…
Cyborg model validation
Like the Titanic being unsinkable, banks’ models were meant to be unbreakable – able to withstand any scenario. They’d been perfectly validated, yet in the face of COVID-19, they…
Status Update: Funded
Pensions have never been especially exciting. Usually, it takes a crisis, like a company collapsing and retirees being deprived of their dues, for a pension fund to make the…
Risky business: why existing models don’t work
“Prediction,” said the Danish physicist, Niels Bohr, “is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.” Within these pages, we’ve discussed the impossibility of specifically predicting the pandemic, along with the…
Putting Stress Tests in the Blender
We’re delighted to share that our CEO, Alla Gil, is the new FRM Corner columnist at the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP). Her first piece is out now….
What to Do When Black Swans Invade
In these crazy days, it can sometimes seem like one-in-a-hundred-year events are happening every five years (of course, as long as the events are all different, there’s not necessarily…
When Covid Moves the Risk Goalposts
Imagine running-up to take a penalty, only for the goalposts to move just as you’re about to kick the ball. What if the ball was the capital you’re managing…
Three Investment Lessons From the COVID Crisis
Equities, bonds and cash. This is the holy trinity of assets where investment managers stash most of their money. They may have a bit of all three; they may…
How Fed Stress Tests Helped Prep the U.S. For COVID
They sent chills down the spines of every big bank CEO, forcing some of the most storied names on Wall Street to try multiple times before receiving a pass….
If You Don’t Like Surprises, Avoid Them
The past six months have been full of surprises, ranging from the coronavirus pandemic and lockdown, to massive government intervention and soaring stocks. Against this backdrop, one is almost tempted…
Herd Immunity: Why Stocks Keep Rising (Despite COVID-19)
Have the markets gone mad? After the COVID crash – prompted by the “Great Shutdown” rather than than the pandemic itself – markets have recovered their vim. As Bloomberg’s…
How to Make Fed Stress Tests Pandemic-Proof
Stale, confusing and little more than a compliance exercise designed to enable banks to continue paying dividends – that’s how Harvard professor and former Federal Reserve board member, Daniel K…