Come with me if you want to remain solvent

The Terminator movie franchise left us with many memorable quotes, but the one from the unborn John Conner, relaed by the hero, Kyle Reese, in the 1984 original, is perhaps the most poignant. “The future is not set,” he says. Believe it or not, that may also turn out to be the most valuable lesson COVID-19 has taught the risk community and business managers. Since there are many possible futures, it clearly isn’t enough to look at – and prepare for – just a few of them. Financial institutions must be ready for all future events, including #unprecedented ones. It doesn’t mean they have to hold capital against all of them at the same time. Only one of these possible futures will come about. A multifaceted #scenario analysis technique can enable firms to both identify early warning signals of adverse outcomes and develop proper contingency plans, for scenarios that have never happened before – or for ones that may be back. For more, see Alla Gil’s latest column in Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP).