Strategic Risk: How to Select Critical Future Scenarios

With age, they say, comes wisdom. But when it comes to models, the older they get, the less useful they become, especially when you need to find out which possible future to prepare for. Take the past two years: pandemic, inflation, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have shown that both the backward-looking and forward-looking approaches used for quantifying risk over the longer-term are no longer fit for purpose. A new model is needed – but what, exactly, needs to change, and how can this best be achieved? For the answers, check out Alla Gil’s latest GARP column, which you can read here.